Merced Housing Market, CA
Last updated July 2026
As of the latest data, the typical home in Merced is valued around $420K, down 1.0% over the past 12 months. The market is home to roughly 290K residents. Looking ahead, Curb Report's 12-month price forecast points to mixed signals, housing crash risk is elevated, rental cap rates run near market median, the overall Investment Score grades weak. Below you'll find Merced's home prices, price forecast, crash and climate risk, property taxes, cap rate, and rental data, updated monthly from Zillow, the Census Bureau, FEMA, and 30+ sources. Create a free account to explore the full interactive map, or analyze a specific listing with Curb Check.
Median home value
$420K
1-year growth
-1.0%
Population
290K
12-mo forecast
Mixed signalsCrash risk
ElevatedCap rate
Near market medianNet migration
-683
Affordability
16/100
Today
Aug 24, 2026 | every business day | US Treasury
10-year Treasury 4.70%, -4 bp. Mortgage pricing tracks this, so it is the piece of a Merced purchase that actually moved today.
What today’s rate does to a Merced payment →Dig into Merced
Worried about a downturn? Is Merced, CA going to crash?
Buying to rent? See the Merced, CA cap rate
Merced housing market FAQ
Is now a good time to buy in Merced?
Curb Report's 12-month price forecast for Merced currently points to mixed signals, with elevated housing crash risk. Create a free account to see the full forecast, the signals driving it, and historical trends before you buy.
What is the housing crash risk in Merced?
Merced's housing crash risk is currently elevated, based on price-to-income, inventory, days-on-market, and overvaluation signals. See the full Crash Risk breakdown and what's driving it on Curb Report.
What is the median home price in Merced?
The typical home value in Merced is about $420K, down 1.0% over the past year. Explore the full price history and 12-month forecast on Curb Report.
Is Merced a good place to invest in rental property?
In Merced, rental cap rates run near market median and the overall Investment Score grades weak. Use the Curb Check tool to paste any Zillow or Redfin listing and get instant cap rate, cash flow, and a risk read for that specific property.
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