Travis County, TX Buyer Report
What the data says about buying a home in Travis County, TX right now.
The full Travis County, TX Buyer Report as a designed PDF: the verdict, negotiating leverage, price history and forecast, rate sensitivity, taxes, and risks. Regenerated from the latest data each time.
The verdict
Conditions for buyers: Mixed
- Price outlook: crash risk is elevated (89/100), and values sit about 34% above what local incomes have historically supported.
- Buyers have room to negotiate: homes typically sell about 2.9% under list, and 28% of listings have had a price cut.
- Affordability is stretched: owning a typical home costs about $4,062 a month, roughly 49% of the median household income, about 124% more than renting.
This rates current market conditions for buyers from the data below. It is not advice about whether you should buy a particular home.
Price outlook
Crash risk
89/100, Elevated
Higher than 99% of U.S. counties
12-month price forecast
45/100, Mixed signals
Below 50 leans toward softer prices; stronger than 35% of U.S. markets. A score, not a percent change.
Overvaluation
34% above the long-run income norm
Home values vs about 3.5x local median income
Change from peak
27.3% below its peak
Typical home value vs its all-time high
Typical home value
$466,000
-4.0% over 12 months
Biggest crash-risk driver
Overvaluation
How far home values sit above or below the long-run norm of about 3.5 times local median household income.
Can you afford it?
True monthly cost
$4,062/mo
About 49% of the median household income. Includes tax, insurance, and maintenance, 20% down.
Income needed
$155,436
Local median household income: $99,611
Buy vs rent
124% more to own
Typical rent: $1,618/mo
Property tax rate
1.47% a year
Share of home value
Homeowners insurance
$7,040/yr
Estimate for a typical home, not a quote
Flood insurance (NFIP avg)
$738/yr
Average for policies in force here, not a quote
Your payment in Travis County, TX
Curb Report does not publish a mortgage rate. The rates below are illustrative scenarios, not quotes, estimates, or observations of today's market. Enter the rate you were actually quoted to see your own numbers.
Monthly payment
$3,515
$2,357 principal and interest, $571 tax, $587 insurance
Income needed (28% rule)
$150,623
Local median household income: $99,611
Cash down
$93,221
Before closing costs
Computed at 6.50% on a 30-year fixed with 20% down on a $466,106 price. Property tax uses this area's estimated rate of 1.47% of value per year, and insurance this area's estimate of about 1.51% of value per year. No PMI, HOA, or maintenance. Informational only, not a loan offer or financial advice.
Negotiating leverage
Homes here typically sell about 2.9% under list.
Seller concession index
75/100
Higher means sellers are conceding more (price cuts, longer waits)
Listings with a price cut
28.2%
Days on market
72 days
Months of supply
6.3 months
Over about 6 favors buyers, under about 4 favors sellers
Sale-to-list ratio
97.1%
Sale price vs final list price
Sold above list
8.4%
Share of sales over the original asking price
Risks to know
Natural-hazard risk (FEMA)
98/100, High
FEMA National Risk Index composite
Flood risk (FEMA)
98/100, High
Riverine (inland) flooding
Violent crime
400 per 100k
Reported offenses (FBI), not a measure of personal safety
Property crime
2,709 per 100k
Owners below purchase price
13.6%
Modeled share of would-be sellers whose home is now worth less than they paid
Carrying-cost risk
89/100, High
Insurance cost, hazard exposure, and property tax combined
School quality
60/100
County public-school composite, higher is better
Better-value places nearby
Texas counties within 100 miles with lower crash risk and/or lower overvaluation than Travis County, TX, nearest first.
- Buyer report
Williamson County, TX (about 20 mi)
Crash risk 74/100, Elevated. 2% above the long-run income norm. Typical home $397,000
- Buyer report
Bastrop County, TX (about 26 mi)
Crash risk 82/100, Elevated. 18% above the long-run income norm. Typical home $355,000
- Buyer report
Hays County, TX (about 27 mi)
Crash risk 83/100, Elevated. 18% above the long-run income norm. Typical home $368,000
- Buyer report
Caldwell County, TX (about 34 mi)
Crash risk 82/100, Elevated. 16% above the long-run income norm. Typical home $283,000
- Buyer report
Bell County, TX (about 49 mi)
Crash risk 69/100, Moderate. 4% above the long-run income norm. Typical home $250,000
Methodology and data
Market data through September 2026. Crash risk and the price forecast were last scored for June 2026. The report re-reads the latest data every time you open it, so it updates as new monthly data lands.
Sources include Zillow home values and rents, Realtor.com and Redfin listing and sales data, the Census Bureau, FEMA, the FBI, Treasury and NAIC insurance data, and NCES school data. The buyer verdict combines three pillars (price outlook, negotiating leverage, affordability) and only reads Favorable or Unfavorable when at least two of them agree; missing inputs are listed, never filled in. Costs are estimates for a typical home with 20% down, not quotes.
Informational only, not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a loan offer, or a rate quote. Crash risk and the forecast are data-driven estimates, not predictions. Verify independently and talk to a lender and a qualified professional before making a decision about Travis County, TX. Full Travis County, TX market page